Personal Data

Full name

Nico Stollenwerk

Publishing name

Nico Stollenwerk

Birthday

1964-02-10T00:00:00

Academic Degrees

DOUTORAMENTO(0)

Degree date

1997

Final grade

Not applicable

Degree granting institution

Outra

School / College / Campus

Other

Thesis title

Supervisor

Co-supervisor

Scientific area

MESTRADO(0)

Degree date

1993

Final grade

Not applicable

Degree granting institution

Outra

School / College / Campus

Other

Thesis title

Supervisor

Co-supervisor

Scientific area

Profissional activity

Period Position Institution
01-06-2007 - Researcher and group leader of the Mathematical Biology Group at CMAF, Univ. Lisbon CMAF, University of Lisbon
Since 2005 Visiting Scientist University of Porto and Gulbenkian Institute of Science
July 1994 to August 1998 Promovent, doctorate and guest scientist Research Center Julich
Since February 2001 Research position Royal Holloway, University London, School of Biological Sciences
October 2000 to January 2001 Research position Jena University and Tel Aviv University
September 1998 to October 2000 Research assistant University of Cambridge, Department of Plant Sciences

Area of scientific activity

Area of scientific activity

Statistical physics, non-linear dynamics, epidemiology

Specialization domain

Dynamical systems and stochastic dynamics

Current main scientific area

Deterministic chaos, renormalization, theory of non-equilibrium phase transitions and their applications to stochastic modelling of epidemiological and biological systems.<br>

Other scientific activities

Neurodynamics,including neural networks in information theory and analysis of neurological data (e.g. epilepsy). Non-linear time series analysis. Statistical data analysis. Applicatons of self organized criticalities and extended dynamic systems.

Experience as scientific advisor

Co-supervision of MSc thesis at Porto University, Mathematics,
thesis defence in October 2006, now I supervise the candidate
for a FCT-payed PhD

Supervision of PhD thesis at Gulbenkian Institute of Science,
Theoretical Epidemiology Group, started in April 2006 as a project,
now financed by FCT and registered at Lisbon University

Have supervised a post-doc/post-grad student via the EU-project
EPIWORK, start of the grant 1.2.2009,, ending 2013.

In another EU-project, DENFREE, 2012 to 2017, I supervising a three post-doctoral
and one PhD student..

In 2012 a PhD student of mine finished her PhD as a double PhD, jointly
between Lisbon University and Free University Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

In 2016 I supervised the master thesis of a student originating from our biomathematics course,
including one publication in Ecological Complexity, on Hopf and torus bifurcations, into
deterministic chaos via Arnold tongues.

Am now supervising a PhD student, and on just finished master student to finish
some publications.

Participations in R&D projects

Participation in Wellcome trust grant on "accidental pathogens"
with Vincent Jansen, London University, 2000 till 2004.


AHFMR grant (Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research, Canada)
Meningits vaccine design and implementation including modelling. Grant obtained under heading of Anthony Schryvers (University of Calgary) and Rolando Pajon Feyt (Finlay Institute, La Habana, Cuba).
granted in December 2007



EU-grant EPIWORK
as leader of the CMAF group
Starting date: 1.2.2009 (duration 4 years)


EU-grant DENFREE under FP7
Work package leader of WP4 : "Descriptive and predictive models in dengue fever"
Starting date 1.1.2012 (duration 5 years)





FCT grant PTDC/MAT/115168/2009.
Principal Investigator
Starting date 1.1.2011 (duration 3 years)


participation finished or in progress in 3 more FCT projects,
2 with Alberto Pinto, one with Isabela Gordo


Have lead the Lisbon group in a DAAD-FCT exchange grant with Koblenz University
from 2015 for two years. From this and from DENFREE also a present COST action originated.

Awards

Year Award Awarding entity
2007 Ciencia 2007 position at CMAF CMAF/FCT
2005 UK grant on network strucutures (declined politely) Royal Holloway University London
1990 Undergraduate positions in ATOE Research Center Julich
1991 Undergraduate positions in ATOE Research Center Julich
1992 Undergraduate positions in ATOE Research Center Julich
1993 Postgraduate scholarship at “Graduiertenkolleg Komplexe Dynamiche Systema” University Bremen
1994 Guest scientist position awarded Deutshe Forschungsgeneinschaf
1997 Sonderfordermabnahme fur eine Promotion innerhalb von 3 Jahren Research Center Julich
1997 Honored membership of the Forum Modelling home institute HLRZ Research Center Julich
1998 Honored membership of the Forum Modelling home institute HLRZ Research Center Julich
2001 Wellcome Trust Scholarship Royal Hollaway, University of London, School of Biological Sciences
2002 Wellcome Trust Scholarship Royal Hollaway, University of London, School of Biological Sciences
2003 Wellcome Trust scholarship Royal Hooloway, University of London, School of Biological Sciences

Publications

Teses

  • <br><br>

Artigos em revistas de circulação internacional com arbitragem científica

  • <br><br><br>\bibitem{MartinsPintoStollenwerk2008}<br> Martins, J., Pinto, A., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2009)<br> A scaling analysis in the SIRI epidemiological model,<br> {\it accepted for publication in Journal <br> of Biological Dynamics}.<br> % SIRIscaling.pdf<br><br>\bibitem{Rui2009}<br> Gon\c{c}alves, R., Pinto, A., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2009)<br> Cycles and Universality in Sunspot Numbers Fluctuations,<br> {\it accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal}.<br> % Cycles_and_universality_SSN_fluctuations.pdf<br><br><br><br>\bibitem%[Aguiar, M., Stollenwerk, N., \& Kooi, B. (2009]<br>{DengueChaos2009}<br> Aguiar, M., Stollenwerk, N., \& Kooi, B. (2009)<br> Torus bifurcations, isolas and chaotic attractors in a simple<br> dengue fever model with ADE and temporary cross immunity,<br> {\it accepted for publication in <br> Intern. Journal of Computer Mathematics}.

Livros (autor)

  • Stollenwerk, N. \& Jansen, V.A.A. (2011)
    {\it {\bf Population Biology and Criticality}:
    From critical birth-death processes
    to self-organized criticality
    in mutation pathogen systems},
    (Imperial College Press, World Scientific, London,
    ISBN--13 978--184816--401--7).

Capítulos de livros


  • \bibitem{Aguiaretal2011bookchapter}
    Aguiar, M., Kooi, W. B. and Stollenwerk, N. (2011).
    Modeling infectious diseases dynamics: Dengue fever, a case study.
    {\it Epidemiology / Book 2}, ISBN 979-953-307-754-2, edited by Prof. Dr. Maria de Lourdes Ribeiro de Souza da Cunha, Botucatu, Brazil.

Artigos em revistas de circulação internacional com arbitragem científica

  • \bibitem{Rui2009differenceequ}
    Gon\c{c}alves, R., Ferreira, H., Pinto, A., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2009)
    Universality in nonlinear prediction of complex systems,
    {\it Journal of Difference Equations and Applications}
    {\bf 15}, 1067--1076.



    \bibitem{reinfection2010}
    Stollenwerk, N., van Noort, S., Martins J.,
    Aguiar, M., Hilker, F., Pinto, A., Gomes, G. (2010)
    A spatially stochastic epidemic model with partial immunization
    shows in mean field approximation the reinfection threshold,
    {\it Journal of Biological Dynamics} {\bf 4}, 634--649.

    \bibitem{ActaBiotheoretica2010}
    Pinto, A., Aguiar, M., Martins, J. and Stollenwerk, N. (2010).
    Dynamics of epidemiological models.
    {\it Acta Biotheoretica}, {\bf 58}, 381--389.


    \bibitem{RuiphysicaA2010}
    Gon\c{c}alves, R., Ferreira, H., Stollenwerk, N., \& Pinto, A. (2010)
    Universal fluctuations of the AEX index,
    {\it Physica} {\bf A 389}, 4776--4784 .
    % Impact Factor: 1.521

    \bibitem{AgStKo2011}
    Aguiar, M., Ballesteros, S., Kooi, B.W., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2011)
    The role of seasonality and import in a minimalistic
    multi-strain dengue model capturing differences
    between primary and secondary infections: complex dynamics
    and its implications for data analysis,
    {\it Jounal of Theoretical Biology}, {\bf 289}, 181--196.
    % (doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.043).
    % Impact Factor: 2.371

    \bibitem{seriesexpansion2011}
    Martins, J., Aguiar, M., Pinto, A., Stollenwerk, N. (2011).
    On the series expansion of the spatial SIS evolution operator.
    {\it Journal of Difference Equations and Applications}, {\bf 17},
    1107--1118.
    % Impact Factor: 0.951

    \bibitem{interfacefocus2012}
    Stollenwerk, N., Aguiar, M., Ballesteros, S.,
    Boto, J., Kooi, W. B., \& Mateus, L. (2012).
    Dynamic noise, chaos and parameter estimation
    in population biology,
    {\it Interface, Focus},{\bf 2}, 156--169.



    \bibitem{mmnp2012}
    Aguiar, M., Stollenwerk, N. \& Kooi, W. B. (2012).
    Scaling of stochasticity in dengue hemorrhagic
    fever epidemics.
    {\it Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.}, {\bf 7}, 1--11.



    \bibitem{seriesexpansion2011}
    Martins, J., Pinto, A., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2012).
    Stationarity in moment closure and quasi-stationarity
    of the SIS model.
    {\it Mathematical Biosciences}, {\bf 236}, 126--131.



    \bibitem{fourstrainmodel}
    Aguiar, M., Kooi, W. B., Rocha, F., Gaffari, P. \&
    Stollenwerk, N. (2013).
    How much complexity is needed to describe the fluctuations
    observed in
    dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence data?
    {\it Ecological Complexity}, {\bf 16}, 31--40.
    % Published online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2012.09.001.



    \bibitem{cmmse2012specialissueFilipe}
    Rocha, F., Aguiar, M., Souza, M., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2013)
    Time-scale separation and center manifold analysis
    describing vector-borne disease dynamics,
    {\it Int. Journal. Computer Math.} {\bf 90}, 2105--2125.


    \bibitem{BayesianModelComparison}
    Mateus, L., Stollenwerk, N., \& Zambrini, J.C. (2013)
    Stochastic Models in Population Biology: From Dynamic Noise
    to Bayesian Description and Model Comparison for Given Data Sets,
    {\it Int. Journal. Computer Math.} {\bf 90}, 2161--2173.



    \bibitem{cmmse2012specialissueMairaBob}
    Kooi, W. B., Aguiar, M., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2013).
    Bifurcation analysis of a family of multi-strain
    epidemiology models,
    {\it Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics},
    {\bf 252}, 148--158.






    \bibitem{KaiLeuatOok}
    Aguiar, M., Paul, R., Sakuntabhai, A., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2014)
    Are we modeling the correct data set? Minimizing false predictions
    for dengue fever in Thailand,
    {\it Epidemiology and Infection}, {\bf 142}, 2447--2459.
    % Impact factor: 2.867
    %(presented at DSABNS 2015, Lisbon, ...)


    \bibitem{}
    Kooi, W.B., Aguiar, M., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2014)
    Analysis of an asymmetric two-strain dengue model.
    {\it Mathematical Biosciences} {\bf 248} (2014) 128--139.
    % {\it accepted for publication in "Mathematical Biosciences", 20.12.2013}.
    % Impact factor: 1.454
    % http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematical-biosciences/


    \bibitem{MMNPpredictability}
    Stollenwerk, N., Mateus, L., Rocha, F., Skwara, U., Ghaffari, P., \&
    Aguiar, M. (2015).
    Prediction and predictability in population biology: Noise and chaos,
    {\it Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.}, {\bf 10}, 142--164.
    % DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/201510210


    \bibitem{footballdengue2014and2015}
    Aguiar, M., Rocha, F., Pessanha, E., Mateus, L., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2015)
    Carnival or football, is there a real risk for acquiring dengue fever in Brazil
    during holiday seasons?
    {\it Nature Scientific Reports}, {\bf 5}, 8462 (11).
    % DOI:10.1038/srep0846.



    \bibitem{footballdengue2015LancetInfDis}
    Aguiar, M., Coelho, G., Rocha, F., Mateus, L., Pessanha, E., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2015)
    Dengue transmission during the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil.
    {\it The Lancet Infectious Diseases}, {\bf 7}, 765--766.



    \bibitem{cmmse2012semiclassical}
    Mateus, L., Ghaffari, P., Skwara, U., Rocha, F., Aguiar, M.,
    Masoero, D., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2016)
    Semiclassical approximations of stochastic epidemiological processes towards parameter
    estimation, as prime example the SIS system with import,
    {\it accepted for publication in "Ecological Complexity"}.



    \bibitem{mosquitoSeasonality}
    Rocha, F., Mateus, L., Skwara, U., Aguiar, M., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2016)
    Understanding dengue fever dynamics: a study of seasonality in
    vector borne disease models,
    {\it accepted for publication in "International Journal of Computer Mathematics"}.
    % DOI: 10.1080/00207160.2015.1050961


    \bibitem{cmmsespecialissue2013semiclassical}
    Mateus, L., Masoero, D., Rocha, F., Aguiar, M., Skwara, U.,
    Ghaffari, P., Zambrini, J.C, \& Stollenwerk, N. (2016)
    Epidemiological models in semiclassical approximation:
    an analytically solvable model as test case,
    {\it accepted for publication in "Mathematical Methods in Applied Sciences"}.






    \bibitem{denguevaccineMairaScott}
    Aguiar, M., Stollenwerk, N., \& Halstead, S. (2016)
    The impact of the newly licensed dengue vaccine in endemic countries,
    {\it accepted for publication in "PLOS Neclected Tropical Diseases",
    published online December 21, 2016},
    DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005179.


    \bibitem{denguevaccineMairaScottExpertVaccines}
    Aguiar, M., Halstead, S., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2016)
    Consider stopping dengvaxia
    administration without
    immunological screening,
    {\it accepted for publication in "Expert Review of Vaccines",
    published online December 23, 2016},
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14760584.2017.1276831.



    \bibitem{denguevaccineMairaScottshortcommunication}
    Aguiar, M., Stollenwerk, N., \& Halstead, S. (2016)
    The risks behind Dengvaxia recommendation,
    {\it The Lancet Infectious Diseases}, {\bf 16}, 882--883.
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30168-2


    Ecological Complextity, 2017

    Lancet Infectious Diseases, 21.12.2017, online



Outras publicações

  • \bibitem{Cmmse2008dengue}
    Aguiar, M., Stollenwerk, N., \& Kooi, B.(2008)
    Torus bifurcations, isolas and chaotic attractors
    in a simple dengue model with ADE and temporary cross immunity,
    {\it accepted for publication in}
    Proceedings of 8th
    Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in
    Science and Engineering, CMMSE 2008, ISBN 978-84-612-1982-7.


    Aguiar, M., Stollenwerk, N., and Kooi, W. B. (2008).
    Torus bifurcations, isolas and chaotic attractors in a simple dengue model with ADE and temporary cross immunity.
    {\it Proceedings of 8th Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in
    Science and Engineering, CMMSE} , ISBN 978-84-612-1982-7, edited by Jesus V.A. et al., Murcia, pp.
    23--35.


    \bibitem{Cmmse2008flu}
    {S. van Noort and N. Stollenwerk},
    "From dynamical processes to likelihood functions:
    an epidemiological application to influenza",
    in
    \emph{Proceedings of 8th
    Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in
    Science and Engineering, CMMSE 2008}, ISBN 978-84-612-1982-7,
    edited by Jesus Vigo Aguiar {\it et al.},
    Salamanca, 2008, pp. 651--661.

    \bibitem{Cmmse2009parallellyaps}
    Stollenwerk, N., Aguiar, M., and Kooi, W. B. (2009).
    Computational aspects in the investigation of chaotic multi-strain dengue models. {\it Proceedings of 9th Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering, CMMSE}, ISBN 978-84-612-9727-6, edited by Jesus Vigo Aguiar et al., Gij\'on, pp. 995--1002.


    \bibitem{Icnaam2009dengue}
    Aguiar, M., Kooi, W. B., and Stollenwerk, N. (2009).
    Multi-strain deterministic chaos in dengue epidemiology, a challenge for computational mathematics. {\it AIP Conference Proceedings}, {\bf 1168}, 1555--1558.


    \bibitem{Cmmse2010dengueseasonal}
    Aguiar, M., Ballesteros, S., and Stollenwerk, N. (2010).
    The influence of seasonality on dengue epidemiology, modeling and data analysis. {\it Proceedings of 10th Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in
    Science and Engineering, CMMSE}, ISBN 978-84-613-5510-5, edited by Jesus V.A. et al., Almer\'ia, pp.
    25--35.

    \bibitem{Cmmse2010coexistingattractors}
    Stollenwerk, N., Aguiar, M., Ballesteros, S., and Kooi, W. B. (2010).
    Certain uncertainties in population biology revisited. {\it Proceedings of 10th Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering, CMMSE}, ISBN 978-84-613-5510-5, edited by Jesus V.A. et al., Almer\'ia, pp.840--48.


    \bibitem{Icnaam2010dengue}
    Aguiar, M., Ballesteros, S., and Stollenwerk, N. (2010).
    Two strain dengue model with temporary cross immunity and seasonality. {\it AIP Conference Proceedings}, {\bf 1168},
    732--735.

    \bibitem{Icnaam2010dynamicnoise}
    Aguiar, M., Ballesteros, S., and Stollenwerk, N. (2010).
    Dynamic noise and its role in understanding epidemiological processes. {\it AIP Conference Proceedings}, {\bf 1168},
    736--40.


    \bibitem{Icnaam2010DynNoise}
    Aguiar, M., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2010)
    Dynamic noise and its role in understanding
    epidemiological processes,
    % ICNAAM 2010, Rhodes.
    {\it ICNAAM, Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics,
    International Conference 2010, Rhodes,}
    edited by T. E. Simos, G. Psihoyios, and Ch. Tsitouras,
    American Institute of Physics 978-0-7354-0831-9 /10/\$30.00.





    \bibitem{Icnaam2011Parameterestimation}
    Ma\'ira Aguiar, Sebastien Ballesteros, Jo\~ao Pedro Boto,
    Bob W. Kooi, Lu\'is Mateus \& Nico Stollenwerk (2011)
    Parameter estimation in epidemiology:
    from simple to complex dynamics,
    ICNAAM 2011, Chalkidiki, 1248--1251.
    (Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics ICNAAM 2011
    AIP Conf. Proc. 1389, 1224-1227 (2011); doi: 10.1063/1.3637837
    Copyright 2011 American Institute of Physics 978-0-7354-0956-9/\$30.00)

    \bibitem{Icnaam2011SJmodel}
    Peyman Ghaffari, Vincent Jansen \& Nico Stollenwerk (2011)
    Evolution towards critical fluctuations
    in a system of accidental pathogens,
    ICNAAM 2011, Chalkidiki, 1263--1266.
    (Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics ICNAAM 2011
    AIP Conf. Proc. 1389, 1224-1227 (2011); doi: 10.1063/1.3637837
    Copyright 2011 American Institute of Physics 978-0-7354-0956-9/\$30.00)



    \bibitem{Icnaam2011Denguestochastic}
    Ma\'ira Aguiar, Nico Stollenwerk \& Bob W. Kooi (2011)
    The stochastic multi-strain dengue model: Analysis of the dynamics,
    ICNAAM 2011, Chalkidiki, 1224--1227.
    (Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics ICNAAM 2011
    AIP Conf. Proc. 1389, 1224-1227 (2011); doi: 10.1063/1.3637837
    Copyright 2011 American Institute of Physics 978-0-7354-0956-9/\$30.00)

    \bibitem{Icnaam2011dengue}
    Aguiar, M., Stollenwerk, N. and Kooi, W. B. (2011).
    The stochastic multi-strain dengue model: analysis of the
    dynamics. {\it AIP Conference Proceedings}, {\bf 1389}, 1224--1227.


    \bibitem{Icnaam2011parameterestim}
    Aguiar, M., Ballesteros, S., Boto, J.P., Kooi, B.W., Mateus, L., Stollenwerk, N. (2011).
    Parameter estimation in epidemiology: from simple to complex dynamics.
    {\it AIP Conference Proceedings}, {\bf 1389}, 1248--1251.






    \bibitem{Maira2012cmmse}
    Aguiar, M. Paul, R. Sakuntabhai, A., Stollenwerk, N., Uttayamakul, S.
    Descriptive and predictive models of dengue epidemiology: an overview
    {\it Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Mathematical
    Methods in Science and Engineering, CMMSE}, pp 37-48
    ISBN: 978-84-615-5392-1, edited by Jesus V.A. et al., M\'urcia.


    \bibitem{Bob2012cmmse}
    Kooi, B.W., Aguiar, M., Stollenwerk, N. (2012).
    Bifurcation analysis of a family of multi-strain epidemiology models.
    {\it Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Mathematical
    Methods in Science and Engineering, CMMSE}, pp 733-749
    ISBN: 978-84-615-5392-1, edited by Jesus V.A. et al., M\'urcia.



    \bibitem{cmmse2012stochmod}
    {L. Mateus, J.C. Zambrini, and N. Stollenwerk},
    "Stochastic models in population biology: From dynamic noise
    to Bayesian description and model comparison for given data sets",
    in
    \emph{Proceedings of 12th International
    Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in
    Science and Engineering, CMMSE 2012}, ISBN 978-84-615-5392-1,
    edited by Jesus Vigo Aguiar {\it et al.},
    Salamanca, 2012, pp. 831--840.





    \bibitem{cmmse2012siruv}
    Rocha, F., Aguiar, M., Souza, M., \& N. Stollenwerk, N. (2012)
    "Mosquitos donot matter dynamically in some vector borne disease
    epidemiologies",
    in
    \emph{Proceedings of 12th International
    Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in
    Science and Engineering, CMMSE 2012}, ISBN 978-84-615-5392-1,
    edited by Jesus Vigo Aguiar {\it et al.},
    Salamanca, 2012, pp. 1047--62.




    \bibitem{Cmmse2012superdiffusion}
    {U. Skwara, J. Martins, P. Ghaffari,
    M. Aguiar, J. Boto and N. Stollenwerk},
    "Fractional calculus and superdiffusion in epidemiology:
    shift of critical thresholds",
    in
    \emph{Proceedings of 12th
    Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in
    Science and Engineering, CMMSE 2012}, ISBN 978-84-615-5392-1,
    edited by Jesus Vigo Aguiar {\it et al.},
    Salamanca, 2012, pp. 1118--1129.


    \bibitem{Cmmse2012nvoter}
    Ghaffari, P., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2012)
    "Evolution towards critical fluctuations in a system
    of accidental pathogens",
    in
    \emph{Proceedings of 12th
    Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in
    Science and Engineering, CMMSE 2012}, ISBN 978-84-615-5392-1,
    edited by Jesus Vigo Aguiar {\it et al.},
    Salamanca, 2012, pp. 622--631.



    \bibitem{icnaam2012bayes}
    Mateus, L., Zambrini, J.C., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2012)
    "Parameter estimation and model comparison for
    stochastic epidemiological
    processes in a Bayesian framework"
    (accepted for ICNAAM 2012).

    \bibitem{icnaam2012siruv}
    Rocha, F., Aguiar, M., Souza, M., \& N. Stollenwerk, N. (2012)
    "Understanding the effect of vector dynamics in epidemic models
    using center manifold analysis"
    (accepted for ICNAAM 2012).


    \bibitem{icnaam2012superdiffusion}
    Skwara, U., Martins, J., Ghaffari, P.,
    Aguiar, M., Boto, J., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2012)
    "Applications of fractional calculus to epidemiological models"
    (accepted for ICNAAM 2012).

    \bibitem{icnaam2012nvoter}
    Ghaffari, P., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2012)
    "Evolution of n-species Kimura/voter models towards criticality,
    a surrogate for general models of accidental pathogens"
    (accepted for ICNAAM 2012).

    \bibitem{icnaam2012dengue}
    Aguiar, M., Stollenwerk, N., \& Kooi, B. (2012)
    "Describing dengue epidemics: insights from simple
    mechanistic models"
    (accepted for ICNAAM 2012).




    \bibitem{filtering2013cmmse}
    Stollenwerk, N., Aguiar, M., Rocha, F., \& Skwara, U. (2013)
    Testing particle filters for dengue fever studies via simple
    reinfection models,
    {\it Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Mathematical
    Methods in Science and Engineering, CMMSE},
    ISBN: 978-84-616-2723-3, edited by Jesus V.A. et al., Almeria.



    \bibitem{semiclassics2013cmmse}
    Stollenwerk, N., Masoero, D., Skwara, U., Rocha, F., Ghaffari, P.
    \& Aguiar, M. (2013)
    Semiclassical approximations of stochastci epidemiological processes
    towards parameter estimation,
    {\it Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Mathematical
    Methods in Science and Engineering, CMMSE},
    ISBN: 978-84-616-2723-3, edited by Jesus V.A. et al., Almeria.



    \bibitem{Cmmse2014chaosandnoise}
    Nico Stollenwerk, Filipe Rocha, Luis Mateus, Urszula Skwara,
    Peyman Ghaffari and Maira Aguiar (2014)
    Chaos and noise in population biology:
    modelling dengue fever and data analysis,
    multi-strain dynamics, mosquitos and climate.
    {\it Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on
    Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering - CMMSE 2014}
    SBN: 978-84-616-9216-3
    edited by Jesus Vigo et al., Cadiz.
    http://gsii.usal.es/cmmse2014/


    \bibitem{Cmmse2014semiclassical}
    Luis Mateus, Davide Masoero, Filipe Rocha, Maira Aguiar, Urszula
    Skwara, Peyman Ghaffari, Jean-Claude Zambrini and Nico
    Stollenwerk (2014)
    Epidemiological models in semiclassical approximation:
    an analytically solvable model as test case.
    {\it Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on
    Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering - CMMSE 2014}
    SBN: 978-84-616-9216-3
    edited by Jesus Vigo et al., Cadiz.
    http://gsii.usal.es/cmmse2014/

    \bibitem{Cmmse2014omFilipe}
    Filipe Rocha, Hyun Mo Yang, Carlos Braumann and Nico Stollenwerk (2014)
    Modelling a mosquito population depending on temperature.
    {\it Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on
    Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering - CMMSE 2013}
    SBN: 978-84-616-9216-3
    edited by Jesus Vigo et al., Cadiz.
    http://gsii.usal.es/cmmse2014/


    \bibitem{Cmmse2014khasminskii}
    Urszula Skwara, Filipe Rocha, Maira Aguiar and Nico Stollenwerk (2014)
    On stochastic models of vector borne diseases.
    {\it Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on
    Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering - CMMSE 2013}
    SBN: 978-84-616-9216-3
    edited by Jesus Vigo et al., Cadiz.
    http://gsii.usal.es/cmmse2014/


    \bibitem{Cmmse2014siriuv}
    Juliana Bezerra, Filipe Rocha, Luis Mateus, Nico Stollenwerk, Paulo
    Pimenta, Eduardo Pessanha, Nagila Secundino, Jorge Arias, Doug
    Norris and Maira Aguiar (2014)
    On how far mosquitos matter in describing
    dengue fever epidemiology.
    {\it Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on
    Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering - CMMSE 2013}
    SBN: 978-84-616-9216-3
    edited by Jesus Vigo et al., Cadiz.
    http://gsii.usal.es/cmmse2014/





    \bibitem{Cmmse2015scaling}
    Nico Stollenwerk, Urszula Skwara, Lidia Aceto, Eric Daud\'e,
    Ramona Margu\c{t}a, Lu\'is Mateus, Peyman Ghaffari, Andrea Parisi
    and Ma\'ira Aguiar
    (2015)
    Power law jumps and power law waiting times,
    fractional calculus and human mobility
    in epidemiological systems.
    {\it Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on
    Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering - CMMSE 2015, Cadiz, Spain},
    pp. 1060--1072,
    ISBN: 978-84-617-2230-3,
    edited by Jesus Vigo et al.



    \bibitem{Cmmse2015hopftorus}
    Pablo Fuentes Sommer, Lu\'is Mateus, Bob Kooi, Ma\'ira Aguiar and
    Nico Stollenwerk
    (2015)
    Hopf and torus bifurcations in stochastic systems in
    mathematical population biology.
    {\it Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on
    Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering - CMMSE 2015, Cadiz, Spain},
    pp. 543--555,
    ISBN: 978-84-617-2230-3,
    edited by Jesus Vigo et al.


    \bibitem{Cmmse2015vaccinebayes}
    Lu\'is Mateus, Ma\'ira Aguiar and Nico Stollenwerk
    (2015)
    Bayesian estimation of vaccine efficacy.
    {\it Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on
    Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering - CMMSE 2015, Cadiz, Spain},
    pp. 794--802,
    ISBN: 978-84-617-2230-3,
    edited by Jesus Vigo et al.



    \bibitem{Icnaam2015radiationmodel}
    Nico Stollenwerk, Thomas G\"otz, Lu\'is Mateus, Putra Wijaya, David Willems,
    Urszula Skwara, Ramona Margu\c{t}a, Peyman Ghaffari \& Ma\'ira Aguiar
    Aguiar, M., \& Stollenwerk, N.
    (2015)
    Modelling Spatial Connectivity in Epidemiological Systems,
    Dengue Fever in Thailand on Networks from Radiation
    Models,
    {\it ICNAAM, Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics,
    International Conference 2015, Rhodes, Greece},
    edited by T. E. Simos, G. Psihoyios, and Ch. Tsitouras,
    American Institute of Physics.

    \bibitem{Icnaam2015hopftorus}
    Nico Stollenwerk, Pablo Fuentes Sommer, Lu\'is Mateus,
    Bob Kooi \& Ma\'ira Aguiar
    (2015)
    Stochastic Hopf and torus bifurcations in population biology,
    {\it ICNAAM, Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics,
    International Conference 2015, Rhodes, Greece},
    edited by T.E. Simos, G. Psihoyios, and Ch. Tsitouras,
    American Institute of Physics.




    \bibitem{Cmmse2016optimalcontrol}
    Peyman Ghaffari, Putra Wijaya, Ma\'ira Aguiar,
    Lu\'is Mateus, Thomas G\"otz \& Nico Stollenwerk
    (2016)
    Using optimal control theory with mosquito repellents and vaccination
    applied to dengue disease prevention and
    and reduction management, a first toy study with analytically treatable models.
    {\it Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on
    Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering - CMMSE 2015, C\'adiz, Spain},
    ISBN: 978-84-608-6082-2,
    edited by Jesus Vigo et al.


    \bibitem{Cmmse2016asymtomatic}
    Raquel Filipe, Nico Stollenwerk, Lu\'is Mateus,
    Peyman Ghaffari, Scott Halstead \& Ma\'ira Aguiar
    (2016)
    Effective infection rate in SIR-type models from models
    with symptomatic and asymptomatic infection.
    {\it Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on
    Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering - CMMSE 2015, C\'adiz, Spain},
    ISBN: 978-84-608-6082-2,
    edited by Jesus Vigo et al.



    \bibitem{Cmmse2016hopftoruschaos}
    Pablo Fuentes Sommer, Nico Stollenwerk,
    Bob Kooi, Lu\'is Mateus, Peyman Ghaffari \& Ma\'ira Aguiar
    (2016)
    Lyapunov spectra for torus bifurcations and ways to deterministic chaos in population biology.
    {\it Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on
    Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering - CMMSE 2015, C\'adiz, Spain},
    ISBN: 978-84-608-6082-2,
    edited by Jesus Vigo et al.








Artigos em revistas de circulação internacional com arbitragem científica

  • <br><br><br>ibitem{DengueChaos2008}<br> Aguiar, M., Kooi, B., & Stollenwerk, N. (2008)<br> Epidemiology of dengue fever: <br> A model with temporary cross-immunity<br> and possible secondary infection shows <br> bifurcations and chaotic behaviour in wide<br> parameter regions,<br> {it Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.}<br> {f 3}, 48--70.<br><br><br>

Artigos em revistas de circulação internacional com arbitragem científica

  • <br><br> Stollenwerk, N., Martins, J., \& Pinto, A. (2007)<br> The phase transition lines in pair approximation <br> for the basic <br> reinfection model SIRI, <br> {\it Physics Letters A} {\bf 371}, 379--388.<br><br><br><br> Massad, E., Chen, M., Ma, S., Struchiner, C.J., Stollenwerk,N.,<br> \& Aguiar, M. (2008)<br> Scale-free Network for a Dengue Epidemic,<br> {\it Applied Mathematics and Computation} <br> {\bf 159}, 376--381.<br><br><br>

Capítulos de livros

  • Aguiar, M., Stollenwerk, N., \& Kooi, B.(2008)<br> Torus bifurcations, isolas and chaotic attractors<br> in a simple dengue model with ADE and temporary cross immunity,<br> {\it accepted for publication in}<br> Proceedings of 8th<br> Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in<br> Science and Engineering, CMMSE 2008, ISBN 978-84-612-1982-7.<br><br><br> van Noort, S., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2008)<br> From dynamical processes to likelihood functions:<br> an epidemiological application to influenza,<br> {\it accepted for publication in}<br> Proceedings of 8th<br> Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in<br> Science and Engineering, CMMSE 2008, ISBN 978-84-612-1982-7.

Artigos em revistas de circulação internacional com arbitragem científica

  • <br><br>

Capítulos de livros

  • Stollenwerk, N., \& Jansen, V.A.A. (2006) <br> Criticality in epidemiology,<br> in <br> {\it (title to be given)}, <br> eds. Bernd Blasius, Lewi Stone, J\"urgen Kurths,<br> (World Scientific, to appear).

Publicações em actas de encontros científicos

  • Stollenwerk, N. (2005) Self-organized criticality in human<br> epidemiology, in<br> {\it Modeling Cooperative Behavior in the Social Sciences}, <br> eds. P.L. Garrido, J. Marro \& M.A. Mu\~{n}oz,<br> (American Institute of Physics AIP, New York), 191--193.<br>

Artigos em revistas nacionais com arbitragem científica

  • Gon\c{c}alves, R., Stollenwerk, N., \& Pinto, A. (2006)<br> River scaling analysis <br> and the BHP universality hypothesis,<br> {\it accepted}. % {\bf 115}, 181--185.<br>

Artigos em revistas de circulação internacional com arbitragem científica

  • Guinea, F., Jansen, V.A.A., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2005)<br> Statistics of infections with diversity in<br> the pathogenicity,<br> {\it Biophysical Chemistry} {\bf 115}, 181--185.<br><br><br><br> Stollenwerk, N., \& Mikolajczyk, R. (2006)<br> Algorithm for parameter estimation <br> in nosocomial infection,<br> {\it accepted}.

Outras publicações

  • [5]Stollenwerk, N. (2001) Parameter estimation in nonlinear systems with dynamic noise, in Integrative Systems Approaches to Natural and Social Sciences - System Science 2000 }, eds. M. Matthies, H. Malchow & J. Kriz, (Springer-Verlag, Berlin).<br><br>[5]Stollenwerk, N. (2003) Criticality in Epidemics: The Mathematics of Sandpiles Explains Uncertainty in Epidemic Outbreaks, in Applied Probability - Recent Advance, eds. H. Gzyl & J. Glaz, (Kluwer Academic Publishers, Massachusetts).<br><br>[6]Jansen, V.A.A., & Stollenwerk, N. (2003) Modelling measles outbreaks using branching processes, in Branching Processes: Variation, Growth, and Extinction of Populations, eds. P. Haccou, P. Jagers & V. Vatutin, (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge).<br>

Outras publicações

  • [1]Stollenwerk, N. (1995) Self-controlling chaos in neuromodules, in Supercomputing in Brain Research - From Tomography to Neural Networks} eds. H. Herrmann, E. Poppel, D. Wolf, (World Scientific, Singapore), 421-426.<br><br>[2]Stollenwerk, N. (1996) Self-Controlling Chaos in Neuromodules: The Model and Implications for Attention, in M.J. van der Heyden, J. Mrsic-Flogel, K. Weigl (Eds.), HELNET ´94/´95}, (pp. 186-197). VU University Press, Amsterdam.<br><br>[3]Stollenwerk, N., & Pasemann, F. (1996(b)) Switching in Self-Controlled Chaotic Neuromodules, World Congress on Neural Networks, San Diego, California, Sept. 15-18, 1996, (pp. 680--684). INNS Press and Lawrence Erlbaum, New Jersey.<br><br>[4]Stollenwerk, N. (1998) Determinism versus stochasticity in biological interspike interval time series, in Chaos and Noise in Biology and Medicine, eds. M. Barbi, S. Chillemi (world Scientific, Singapore), 294-300.<br>

Artigos em revistas de circulação internacional com arbitragem científica

  • [8]Stollenwerk, N., & Jansen, V.A.A. (2003, a) Meningitis, pathogenicity near criticality: the epidemiology of meningococcal disease as a model for accidental pathogens. Journal of Theoretical Biology 222, 347-359.<br><br>[9]Jansen, V.A.A., Stollenwerk, N., Jensen, H.J., Ramsay, M.E.,Edmunds, W.J., & Rhodes, C.J. (2003) Measles outbreaks in a population with declining vaccine uptake,<br>Science 301, 804.<br><br>[10]Stollenwerk, N., & Jansen, V.A.A. (2003, b) Evolution towards criticality in an epidemiological model for meningococcal disease. Physics Letters A 317, 87-96.<br><br>[11]Stollenwerk, N., Maiden, M.C.J., & Jansen, V.A.A. (2004) Diversity in pathogenicity can cause outbreaks of menigococcal disease, (in last stage of revision to be published in Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA).<br>

Artigos em revistas de circulação internacional com arbitragem científica

  • [1]Drepper, F.R., Engbert, R., Stollenwerk, N. (1994) Nonlinear time series analysis of empirical population dynamics, Ecological Modelling 75/76, 171-181.<br><br>[2]Stollenwerk, N., & Pasemann, F. (1996) Control Strategies for Chaotic Neuromodules, International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 6, 693-703.<br><br>[3]Menéndez de la Prida, L., Stollenwerk, N., Sánchez-Andrés, J.V. (1997) Bursting as a source for predictability in biological neural network activity, Physica D 110, 323-331.<br><br>[4]Stollenwerk, N., Menéndez de la Prida, L., & Sánchez-Andrés, J.V. (1997) Spontaneous Activity of Hippocampal Cells in Various Physiological States, Lecture Notes in Computer Sciences 1240, 91-102.<br><br>[5]Pasemann, F., & Stollenwerk, N. (1998) Attractor switching by neural control of chaotic neurodynamics, Network: Computation in Neural Systems 9, 549-561.<br><br>[6]Stollenwerk, N., & Briggs, K.M. (2000) Master equation solution of a plant disease model,Physics Lettersf A 274, 84-91.<br><br>[7]Stollenwerk, N., Drepper, F., & Siegel, H. (2001) Testing nonlinear stochastic models on phytoplankton biomass time series, Ecological Modellingf 144, 261-277<br>

Teses

  • [1]Stollenwerk, N. (1997) Nichtlineare Dynamik in der Analyse neurowissenschaftlicher Systeme: Vom Nachweis von Nichtlinearitaten in biologischen Neuronenverbanden zum Konzept der konsistenten neuronalen Selbstkontrolle in chaotischen Neuronenverbanden, Promotion, PhD-Thesis, TU Clausthal. Published as Jul-Report Nr. 3491, Research Center Julich.<br><br>[2]Stollenwerk, N. (1992) Radial Basis Functions Reconstruction from a Time Series of the Measles Cases in New York City: An Example of Quantitative Ecology based on the Theory of Deterministic Chaos, Diplomarbeit, M.Sc.-thesis}, RWTH, Aachen.<br>

Communications

Comunicações orais por convite

8.-12.9.2008 & Talk "Rich dynamics in multi-strain epidemiological models: \\
& evolution towards
criticality in accidental pathogens, \\
& reinfection threshold, and new dengue chaotic attractors"\\
& at the conference 'Dynamics \& Applications \\
& in honour of Mauricio Peixoto and David Rand'\\
& in Braga, Portugal. \\


22.-26.9.2008 & Talk "Rich dynamics in multi-strain epidemiological models" \\
& during the workshop 'Evolution in Health and Disease' \\
& at IGC, Oeiras, Portugal. \\


30.6.-3.7.2009& Talk
"Analytic likelihood function for data analysis in \\
& the starting phase of an influenza outbreak" \\
& at the 'International Conference on Computational \\
& and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering, \\
& CMMSE 2009'
in Gijon, Spain.\\



30.6.-3.7.2009& Talk
"Fractional calculus and Levy flights: \\
& modelling spatial epidemic spreading" \\
& at the 'International Conference on Computational \\
& and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering, \\
& CMMSE 2009'
in Gijon, Spain.\\


18.-22.9.2009& Talk at the '7th International Conference of Numerical \\
& Analysis and Applied Mathematics, ICNAAM 2009' \\
& in Rethymno, Greece.\\



1.2.2010-3.2.2010 & Talk on "Rich dynamics in multi-strain
epidemiological models" \\
& at DSABNS 1, Lisbon.\\


3.-8.5.2010 & Invited talk at Second International Workshop-School \\
& "Chaos and
Dynamics in Biologycal Networks" in Cargese, Corsica, France\\


31.5-4.6.2010 & Talk "The influence of dynamic noise on systems \\
& with co-existing attractors, including deterministically\\
& chaotic, in application to epidemiology and ecology" \\
& at CMPD 3, Bordeaux, France. \\


26.-30.6.2010&
"Certain uncertainties in population biology revisited"\\
& at CMMSE 2010,
Almeria, Spain\\


19.-25.9.2010& "Dynamic noise and its role in understanding epidemiological processes" \\
& at ICNAAM 2010, Rhodos, Greece.\\


19-25 Sep 2010& talk on Levy flights at ICNAAM 2010, Rhodos, Greece.\\


2.-4.2.2011&
"The interplay between nonlinearity and noise in epidemiological systems"\\
&
at DSABN 2, Lisbon, Portugal.\\



28.6.-2.7.2011 & Talk "On the origin of the irregularity of DHF epidemics" \\
& at the ECMTB 2011, Krakow, Poland\\


28.6.-2.7.2011 & Talk "Chaos and noise in population biology" \\
& at the ECMTB 2011, Krakow, Poland\\



19.-25.9.2011 & Talk "Parameter estimation in epidemiology:
from simple to complex dynamics" \\
& at the ICNAAM 2011, Chalkidiki, Greece\\



19.-21.9.2011 & Invited plenary talk "Chaos and noise in population biology" \\
& at MATE 2011, Colchester, UK\\



23.-24.1.2012 & Invited talk on "Despriptive and predictive models on dengue fever" \\
& at the Denfree open kick-off meeting, Ko Chang, Thailand \\



8.-10.2.2012 & Talk at DSABN 3, Lisbon, Portugal.\\



23.4.2012 & Talk "Dynamic Noise, chaos and parameter estimation in population biology"\\
& at NVTB Symposion: New developments in mathematical biology, DEB applications and \\
& epidemiology, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.\\



2.-5.7.2012 & Key note speaker at the \\
&"12th International Conference Computational and Mathematical Methods \\
&in Science and Engineering", Murcia, Spain, (http://gsii.usal.es/~CMMSE/).\\



Feb 2013 & Talk at DSABNS 4, Lisbon, Portugal

Plenary talks at DSABNS 2014 and 2015 in Lisbon, 2016 and 2017 in Evora, 2018 in Torino to happen in two weeks

March 2013 & Invited plenary speaker at IMPA conference, Brasil,
Cabo Frio – Rio de Janeiro, from March 3 to 9, 2013., organized by Jorge Zubelli.


June 2013 & Plenary closing talk of CMMSE 2013, Almeria, Spain.
http://gsii.usal.es/cmmse/program.pdf

Plenary talk 2015 at CMMSE, Cadiz

Plenary talk 2016 at CMMSE, Cadiz


Plenary talk at Erice conference in 2015


Plenary talk at Symomaths 2016 in Makassar, Indonesia


Plenary talk at Symomaths 2017 in Bandung, Indonesia


Inviation for plenary talk at MB2 in Besançon, 19-22. June 2018

Invitation for plenary talk at TEM 2018 in Kenitra, Morocco in March 2018



Comunicações orais por convite

<br><br>April 2007:<br><br>Stollenwerk, N.<br>Talk at Eropean Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) on “Modelling reinfection in Hepatitis C”, Lisbon.

Outras comunicações orais

<br><br><br>Stollenwerk, N.<br>Talk “Rich dynamics in multi-strain epidemiological models: from evolution towards criticality to reinfection threshold and new deterministically chaotic attractors" at Lisbon Epidemiology Consortium (CEL), at CMAF, Lisbon University.<br><br><br><br>15.-20.4.2007 & Talk "Multi-strain models show critical fluctuations<br> in Neisseria meningitidis \<br> & epidemiology" <br> at the "Neisseria Vaccine Conference"<br> in Varadero, Cuba. \<br><br><br>16.-20.7.2007 & Talk <br> "Rich dynamics in multi-strain epidemiological models: \<br> & from evolution towards criticality to<br> reinfection threshold \<br> & and new deterministically chaotic attractors"\<br> & at the 2nd CMPD in Campinas, Brasil. \<br><br><br><br>13.-17.6.2008 & Talk <br> "From dynamical processes to likelihood functions: \<br> & an epidemiological application to influenza \<br> & at the 8th International Conference on Computational and Mathematical<br> Methods in Science and Engineering, CMMSE, \<br> & in Murcia, Spain. \<br><br><br>29.7.-4.8.2008 & Talk <br> "Reinfection models, theory and applications"\<br> & at the ECMTB 2008 \<br> & in Edinburgh, Scotland. \

Comunicações em painel ("poster")

<br><br><br><br>Stollenwerk, N.<br>Poster presentation “New chaotic attractor in dengue: Positive Lyapunov exponent in multi-strain model with temporary cross-immunity (Version 2)” at<br>4th Congress of the European Society for Emerging Infections (ESEI), Lisbon.<br>30th Sept-3rd Oct.

Comunicações orais por convite

<br><br>13.-17.6.2008 & Talk <br> "From dynamical processes to likelihood functions: \\<br> & an epidemiological application to influenza \\<br> & at the 8th International Conference on Computational <br> and Mathematical<br> Methods in Science and Engineering, CMMSE, \\<br> & in Murcia, Spain. \\<br><br><br><br>29.7.-4.8.2008 & Talk <br> "Reinfection models, theory and applications"\\<br> & at the ECMTB 2008 \\<br> & in Edinburgh, Scotland. \\

Comunicações orais por convite

<br><br>15.-20.4.2007 & Talk "Multi-strain models show critical fluctuations<br> in Neisseria meningitidis \\<br> & epidemiology" <br> at the "Neisseria Vaccine Conference"<br> in Varadero, Cuba. \\<br><br>16.-20.7.2007 & Talk <br> "Rich dynamics in multi-strain epidemiological models: \\<br> & from evolution towards criticality to<br> reinfection threshold \\<br> & and new deterministically chaotic attractors"\\<br> & at the 2nd CMPD in Campinas, Brasil. \\

Comunicações em painel ("poster")

6.-17.8.2007 Poster presentation "New chaotic attractor in dengue:
Positive Lyapunov exponent in multi-strain model with
temporary cross-immunity"
during the 10th International Dengue Course and Symposion,
La Habana, Cuba.





\bibitem{posterdenguechaos}
Aguiar, M., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2009)
New chaotic attractor in dengue:
Positive Lyapunov exponent in multi-strain model with
temporary cross-immunity
({\it poster presented at ICNAAM 2009,
18-22 September 2009,
Rethymno, Crete, Greece}).


\bibitem{posterlevyflight}
Stollenwerk, N., \& Boto, J.P. (2009)
Reaction-superdiffusion systems in epidemiology,
an application of fractional calculus,
({\it poster presented for Darwin Legacy/CIM day, Nov.2009,
and at DSABNS 2010, Feb. 2010,Lisbon, Portugal}).


\bibitem{posterparameterestimevora}
Aguiar, M., Ballesteros, S., Boto, J.P., Kooi, B.,
Mateus, L., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2011)
Parameter estimation in epidemiology:
from simple to complex dynamics
({\it poster presented at ESMTB-EMS summer school, Evora, July 2011}).


\bibitem{posterSJmodelevora}
Ghaffari, P., Jansen, V., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2011)
Evolution towards critical fluctuations
in a system of accidental pathogens
({\it poster presented at ESMTB-EMS summer school, Evora, July 2011}).

\bibitem{posterlevyflightevora}
Stollenwerk, N., \& Boto, J.P. (2011)
Super-diffusion in epidemiology
({\it poster presented ESMTB-EMS summer school, Evora, July 2011}).


\bibitem{posterdengueseasonalevora}
Aguiar, M., Kooi, B., \& Stollenwerk, N. (2011)
The role of seasonality and import in a minimalistic
multi-strain dengue model capturing differences
between primary and secondary infections
({\it poster presented at ESMTB-EMS summer school, Evora, July 2011}).

Comunicações orais por convite

Nov. 2006 Talk at the large IGC (Gulbenkian Inst. of Science) <br> seminar on <br> "Modelling and data analysis <br> in epidemiology".

Outras comunicações orais

23.10.-3.11.2006 Talk at the Conference <br> "Extreme events in Complex Dynamics" <br> at the Max-Planck Institute "Complex Dynamic Systems"<br> in Dresden, Germany.<br><br><br>

Comunicações em painel ("poster")

<br>5.-10.7.2004 Poster presentation during the STRAPP04 conference <br> at the Max-Planck-Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, <br> Dresden, Germany. <br><br>July 2005 Poster presentation during ECMTB 2005,<br> Dresden, Germany. <br><br><br>11.-15.9.2006 Poster presentations during the 2nd Summer School, <br> on Mathematics in Biology and Medicine, the the Gulbenkian.<br><br>25.-29.9.2006 Two poster presentations during the 26th Dynamics Days, <br> Heraklion, Greece.

Comunicações orais por convite

<br><br><br>25.-29.9.2006 Invited Conference Talk "The reinfection threshold <br> exists... and is the mean field solution of partial <br> immunization"<br> to be given at the Dynamics Days 2006,<br> in Heraklion, Greece.

Comunicações orais por convite

18.2. 2005 & Talk at the Physics Department of the University Porto, <br> Portugal. <br><br>June/July & Invitation for a talk at Lisbon University, Portugal. <br><br>17. July 2005 & Talk at the Pure Mathematics Department, University Porto, <br> Portugal. <br><br>July 2005 & Talk at the Gulbenkian Institute for Research, Lisbon, Portugal <br><br>August 2005 & Talk at the NIC, J\"ulich Research Center, Germany. <br><br>Nov. 2005 & Talk at the Gulbenkian Institute of Science, Lisbon, Portugal <br>on "Reinfection and partial immunization stochastic models".<br><br>Nov./Dec. 2005 & 4 Talks on "Bio-combustibles and solar energy hybrid",<br>to University of Aveiro, SONAE, EDP and MARTIFER,<br> Portugal. <br><br>February./March 2006 & Seminar series "Stochastic processes in epidemiolgy<br> and beyond" <br> at the Gulbenkian Institute of Science, Portugal. <br><br>23. August 2006 & Talk at the Gulbenkian Institute of Science, <br> Lisbon, Portugal <br>on "Individual based stochastic models: SIRI($\alpha $), <br>Reinfection threshold and pair approximation".<br><br><br>

Outras comunicações orais

7.-11.2.2005 & Talk "Self-organized criticality \\<br> & in human epidemiology" during the \\<br> & Granada Statistical Physics Seminar, Granada, Spain. <br><br>18.-22.7.2005 & Talk at the 6th Conference of the European <br> Society of Mathematical\\<br> & and Theoretical Biology, ECMTB 2005, in Dresden, Germany.<br><br>25.-28.7.2005 & Talk "Parameter Estimation in self-organized \\<br> & critical epidemics"<br> at the Dynamics Days 2005, \\<br> & in Berlin, Germany.<br><br>28.9.-1.10.2005 & Talk "Scaling of river level data and \\<br> & the BHP universality hypothesis" at the SPE, Ericeira, Portugal.<br><br>26.10.-28.10.2005 & Talk "Scaling of river level data and \\<br> & the BHP universality hypothesis" at the <br> Joint Meeting of the Galician \\ <br>& and North-Portuguese Statistsical \\<br> & Conference, Guimaraes, Portugal.<br><br>10.-14.4.2006 & Talk "From the SIS epidemic to the theory <br> of accidental pathogens"<br> & at the Gulbenkian Workshop on Epidemiology, Oeiras, Portugal.<br><br>2.5.2006 & Talk "Production of synthetic fuels from biomass" \\<br> & at the workshop "Energias sim tabu" at <br> Universidade de Tras-os-Montes \\<br> & e Alto Douro, UTAD, in Vila Real, Portugal.<br><br><br><br>

Comunicações orais por convite

<br><br> 13.-17.9.2004 Plenary Talk <br> ---------------------------<br> "Criticality and its self-organization in epidemiology, <br> models and data" during the <br> Dynamics Days in Palma de Mallorca, Spain.<br><br><br><br><br>

Comunicações em painel ("poster")

July 2002 - Poster presentation during the 22nd Dynamics Days, Heidelberg, Germany. <br><br>July 2002 - Poster presentation during the Statistical Physics Conference, in Paris, France, at the UNESCO building. <br><br>5.-9.9 2003 - Poster presentation during AICME II, Alcalá de Henares, Spain. <br><br>24.-27.9.2003 & Poster presentation during the 23nd Dynamics Days, Palma de Mallorca, Spain. <br><br>

Comunicações em painel ("poster")

15.-20.3.1999 - Poster presentation at the EURANDOM Workshop in Eindhoven, Netherlands. <br><br>20.-23.6.1999 - Poster presentation "Solution of a stochastic disease model via spheroidal wave functions" during the Dynamics Days in Como, Italy. <br><br>18.-19.5.2000 - Poster presentation "Master equation solution of a plant disease model plant disease model" during the Conference "Complex Systems" at the Max-Planck-Institute for Complex Systems, Dresden, Germany. <br><br>25.-29.6.2000 - Poster presentation "A field theory for plant sciences" during the 20th Dynamics Days in Guildford, UK. <br><br>5.-8.6.2001 - Poster presentation "Bayesian parameter estimation for transient and chaotic autoregressive threshold models" during the 21th Dynamics Days, Dresden, Germany. <br>

Comunicações em painel ("poster")

4.-6.6.1995 - Poster contribution "On Exploiting Control in Chaotic Neural Networks for Cognitive Processes" (new version) during the 3rd European Conference on Artificial Life (ECAL),in Granada, Spain.<br><br>28.6.-1.7.199 - Poster contribution during the Dynamics Days in Lyon.<br><br>12.-18.10.1995 - Poster presentation at the ´Interdisciplinary Workshop on Neural Networks in Wurzburg, Germany.<br><br>10.-13.7.1996 - Poster presentation at the Dynamics Days in Lyon, France.<br><br>16.9.1996 - Poster "Switching in Self-Controlled Chaotic Neuromodules" during the World Congress on Neural Networks (WCNN), San Diego,USA.<br><br>20.-24.7.1998 - STATPHYS 20 in Paris, with two posters: "Testing nonlinear stochastic models on empirical algae mass time series" and "Periodically forced hippocampus shows strong nonlinear response correlated with epileptic behaviour".<br><br>21.-25.9.1998 - Poster presentation at the Isaac Newton Institute´s Workshop on Nonlinear Dynamics and Statistics.<br>

Comunicações em painel ("poster")

10.-13.6.1992 - Poster presentation at Dynamics Days in Posnan, Poland.<br><br>1.-3.7.1992 - Poster presentation at "The Mathematical Theory of the Dynamics of Biological Systems" at Oxford, UK.<br><br>28.9.-2.10.1992 - Poster presentation at the conference "State-of-the-Art in Ecological Modelling" at Kiel, Germany.<br><br>15.-18.6.1994 - Poster presentation on economic time series and wavelet analysis at Dynamics Days in Budapest, Hungaria. <br><br>1.-3.10.1994 Poster presentation "On Exploiting Control in Chaotic Neural Networks for Cognitive Processes" (1. Version) during the ´International Workshop on Nonlinear Dynamics, Fractality and Selforganization of Complex Systems´ at Wurzburg.<br><br>21.-23.11.1994 - Poster presentation at the "Workshop on Supercomputing and Brain Research", HLRZ, Research Center Julich.<br>

Comunicações orais por convite

January 2003 - Talk on "SOC in a model of meningitis" at NIC, Julich Research Center, Germany.

7.11. 2003 - Talk at CNRS at University Paris.

3.12. 2003 - Talk at University Potsdam, Germany.

3.2. 2004 - Talk on "Accidental pathogens cause decade long epidemic outbreaks as result of critical fluctuations" at NIC, Julich Research Center, Germany. (Discussions there led to calculations of autocorrelation functions in birth-death processes.)

Comunicações orais por convite

16.1.2001 - Seminar at Theorielabor, Jena University, on "Small world networks and criticality".<br><br>27.4.2001 - Talk at the "Wellcome Center for Infectious Diseases", Oxford University, on "Meningitis, pathogenicity near criticality".<br><br>8.10.2001 - Talk at the "Consejo Superior de investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)",section Condensed Matter Theory, at Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, on "Pathogenicity near criticality and directed percolation".<br><br>30.1.2002 - Talk on "meningits and citicalty" at the Computer Science Department, Royal Holloway University London, UK.<br><br>April 2002 - Meeting in London with Martin Maiden and PHLS staff on meningitis.<br><br>Oct. 2002 - Talk at the CSIC, University of Granada, Spain.<br><br>Nov. 2002 - Talk on "Hints for SOC in a meningits model" at RHUL joint seminar of Computer Science and Biology.<br>

Comunicações orais por convite

26.5-28.5.1998 - Visit of the Physiological Institute of the University Vienna and talk on "Hippocampusdynamik und effektive Kopplungen".<br><br>10.2.1999 - Talk on "Nonlinear dynamics approach in epidemiology" at the seminar series ´Spatially-Extended Dynamics´ of the King´s College Research Centre, Cambridge, UK.<br><br>23.4.1999 - Visit of the BIOSS Institute of the University Edinburgh, and talk on "A method of numerical likelihood estimates tested on plant disease curves".<br><br>6.4.2000 - Visit of the British Telecom Research Laboratory, Ipswich, UK, and talk on "Stochastic modelling in financial markets and recent developments in Econophysics".<br><br>29.10.2000 - Talk at the Biology Department, Tel Aviv University, Israel, on "Criticality in plant epidemics".<br><br>6.11.2000 - Talk at IMSID, Jena University, on "Epileptic intracranial EEG and correlation dimensions". <br>

Comunicações orais por convite

8.3.1994 - Talk at the Dept. of Biological Sciences at the University of Leicester, UK. <br><br>16.9.1994 - Talk "Nichtlineare Zeitreihenanalyse: Einbettungen, Vorhersagbarkeit, Modellbildung", at the GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) of Potsdam at Oberpfaffenhofen.<br><br>8.3.1995 - Talk "Nichtlineare Datenanalyse zur modellfreien Beschreibung chemischer Effektivkinetiken und Kontrollm"oglichkeiten" at the Hoechst Company in Frankfurt.<br><br>5.7.1995 - Talk "Controlling chaos to detect nonlinearity in physiological systems" at the Istituto di Neuroscienze e Bioimigini, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Milan, Italy.<br><br>13.6.1996 - Talk "Neurodynamics and Electrophysiological Experiments" at the Biology Institute of the RijksUniv. Groningen, Netherlands.<br><br>13.2.1997 - Talk during the Oberseminar ´Nichtlineare Probleme der Mathematischen Physik und der Mathematischen Biologie´ of the Mathematics Institute of the University Cologne on "Nichtlineare Zeitreihen-analyse und Modellierung in neurobiologischen Systemen".<br>

Outras comunicações orais

28.-30.5. 2003 - Talk "Evolution towards Criticality in an epidemiological model for Meningitis and Septicaemia" at the 3rd Conference on Modeling and Simulation in Biology, BioMedSim, of the European Simulation Society and FrancoSim at the University of Balamand, El-Kourah, Lebanon. <br>5.-9.9 2003 - Talk at the 2nd International Conference on Mathematical Ecology,AICME, in Alcalá de Henares, Spain. <br>24.-27.9.2003 - Talk "Evolution towards criticality in epidemiology" during the Dynamics Days in Palma de Mallorca, Spain.<br>

Outras comunicações orais

20.-22.3.2000 - Talk "Parameter estimation in nonlinear systems with dynamic noise" during the conference ´System Science 2000´ in Osnabruck, Germany. <br><br>19.-26.7.2000 - Talk "Master equation solution of a plant disease model" during the World Congress of Nonlinear Analysts WCNA 2000 in Catania, Sicily.<br><br>9.-14.7.2001 - Talk at "Scaling Concepts and Complex Systems", a satelite conference to STATPHYS 21 in Mérida, Mexico. <br><br>15.-21.7.2001 - Talk at the STATPHYS 21 ("the world championships of statistical Physics", Eugene Stanley), in Cancun, Mexico.<br><br>14.-17.1.2002 - Invited lecture at the International Workshop on Applied Probability, IWAP, in Caracas, Venezuela.<br><br>2.-6.7. 2002 - Talk at the 5th Conference of the European Society of Mathematical and Theoretical Biology, ECMTB 2002, in Milan, Italy.<br>

Outras comunicações orais

28.6.-1.7.1998 - Talk "Periodically forced hippocampus shows strong nonlinear response correlated with epileptic behaviour" during the Dynamics Days in Edinburgh, UK. <br><br>8.-10.7.1998 - Talk "Testing nonlinear stochastic models on empirical algae mass time series" during the 9th IMA Conference at Oxford, UK. <br><br>4.-8.9.1998 - Talk "Testing nonlinear stochastic models on empirical algae mass time series" during the Conference on Mathematical Ecology, AICME in Alcala de Henares, Spain.<br><br>20.-23.6.1999 - Talk "Parameter estimation in nonlinear systems with dynamic noise" and poster presentation during the Dynamics Days in Como, Italy.<br><br>29.6.-3.7.1999 - Talk "Complete parameter estimation in models on empirical algae mass time series" during the 4th ESMTB meeting on "Theory and Mathematics in Biology and Medicine" in Amsterdam, Netherlands. <br>

Outras comunicações orais

4.10-7.10.1995 - Talk "Self-controlling chaos in neuromodules: The model and implications for attention" during the Workshop of the Helsinki Network Group (HELNET), Montelimar, France. <br><br>16.9.1996 - Talk "Switching in Self-Controlled Chaotic Neuromodules" during the World Congress on Neural Networks (WCNN), San Diego, USA.<br><br>11.4.1997 - Talk "Analysis of non-linear time series in epilepsy" during the Workshop ´Synergetic Physiology´ at the Klinikum of the RWTH Aachen, Germany.<br><br>5.-10.5.1997 - Talk during the International School of Biophysics "Chaos and Noise in Biology and Medicine" in Casmicciola on the island of Ischia, Italy. Titel: "Determinism versus stochasticity in biological interspike interval time series"<br><br>4.-6.5.1997 - Talk during the IWANN 1997, Lanzarote, Spain, on "Spontaneous Activity of Hippocampal Cells in Various Physiological States”<br>

Outras comunicações orais

10.4.1992 - Talk at the conference ´Chaos in Dissipative Systems´ at Trassenheide, Germany. (International audience: Grebogi (USA), Tel (Hungary), Kurths (Potsdam) , Pikowski (USSR), Landa(USSR) etc.)<br><br>3.-8.8.1992 - Talk at the ´International Workshop on Dynamical Systems´ in Porto, Portugal.<br><br>7.-12.9.1992 - Talk at the ´Segundo seminario en Granada sobre fisica computational´ at Almunecar, Spain, in Spanish.<br><br>14.-18.9.1992 - Talk at the conference ´Fractals and Chaos´ at Valencia, Spain.<br><br>6.-10.5.1993 - Talk at the ´Summerschool on Nonlinear Systems in Evolutionary and Population Biology´ at Driebergen, Netherlands.<br>